Swarmwatch Signals: Issue 02

This week’s stories illustrate how much happens beyond the moment of launch. Russia’s Rassvet constellation is experiencing apparent problems during orbital commissioning, while SpaceX is preparing to shift future Starlink launches from Florida from Falcon 9 to Starship.

We also look at new approaches to satellite cybersecurity, commercial deorbit services and a proposed satellite self-defence system.

Swarmwatch Signals does not attempt to capture everything happening in orbit. It selects a small number of developments that deserve attention and considers what they could mean for space infrastructure, security and resilience.

For constellation sizes, launch histories and orbital activity, visit Swarmwatch.

Several Rassvet satellites appear unable to reach higher orbits

Several satellites from the latest deployment of Russia’s Rassvet broadband constellation appear to be experiencing problems during orbital commissioning.

Sixteen satellites were launched on 19 July for Bureau 1440, the company developing the constellation. According to orbital analysis published by RussianSpaceWeb, 11 of the satellites had begun raising their orbits by 5 August. By later in the month, three appeared to have abandoned their climbs and were slowly losing altitude at a distance of approximately 310 to 330 kilometres.

Two more satellites reportedly showed no evidence of manoeuvring and remained below 300 kilometres, leaving them likely to re-enter the atmosphere if their orbits are not raised.

The available tracking data shows that the satellites are behaving differently, but it does not establish the cause. It would therefore be premature to describe the problem as a propulsion failure or to assume that every satellite which stopped climbing has been lost.

Bureau 1440 said after the launch that the satellites had separated successfully and established contact with mission control. It has not publicly explained the subsequent differences in their orbital behaviour.

Why it matters: Launching a constellation is only the beginning. Each satellite must complete commissioning, raise its orbit and enter service. Problems at this stage can reduce the effective size of a deployment while increasing the cost and launch rate required to build the network.

Source: RussianSpaceWeb, with additional reporting from Defence Blog and Bureau 1440.

SpaceX prepares to move Florida Starlink launches to Starship

SpaceX launched 29 Starlink satellites from Cape Canaveral on 25 August, completing its 100th Falcon 9 mission of 2026.

The launch also marked the 37th flight of the mission’s first-stage booster, extending SpaceX’s reuse record.

More significantly, SpaceX vice-president Kiko Dontchev said it was the final dedicated Falcon 9 Starlink mission from Florida. Future Starlink deployments from the state are intended to use Starship, although Falcon 9 Starlink launches will continue from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

SpaceX has conducted approximately 260 Starlink launches from Cape Canaveral during the past seven years. The transition will not happen everywhere at once, and Starship was still undergoing flight testing at the time of the announcement.

Why it matters: This is a staged change rather than the immediate retirement of Falcon 9 from Starlink operations. It nevertheless shows how closely the constellation’s next phase is tied to SpaceX making Starship a dependable orbital launch system.

Source: Space.com

Viasat tests a new approach to finding weaknesses in satellite systems

Cybersecurity company Atalanta has released Argo, a system it says can analyse complex software and identify weaknesses that conventional testing might miss.

According to the Associated Press, technology incorporated into Argo has been used to examine the resilience of Viasat’s satellite communications network. Atalanta describes its approach as “software understanding”, combining mathematical analysis with artificial intelligence.

Viasat was the target of the 2022 cyberattack against its KA-SAT network, which disrupted communications across parts of Europe at the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The companies have not published enough technical information for their broader claims to be independently evaluated. Even so, the work reflects growing interest in testing satellite infrastructure as an interconnected software system rather than treating individual components in isolation.

Source: Associated Press

The Pentagon backs commercial satellite deorbit studies

The US Defense Innovation Unit and Space Development Agency have selected D-Orbit, Firefly Aerospace and Katalyst Space Technologies to develop concepts for a commercial satellite deorbit service.

The initial design awards are worth a combined $8.4 million, according to Breaking Defense. The programme is intended to demonstrate services capable of approaching an expired satellite, inspecting it and moving it towards a controlled or accelerated re-entry. A prototype service could be demonstrated around 2028.

Firefly’s proposed system would use its Elytra orbital vehicle to rendezvous with a client spacecraft, survey it and conduct the deorbit operation. Its current award covers a preliminary design review, not an operational mission.

The same rendezvous and manipulation capabilities could also be used for inspection, servicing or potentially interfering with another satellite. That dual use will make authorisation, transparency and attribution important parts of any eventual service.

Sources: Firefly Aerospace and Breaking Defense

A constellation is an industrial system, not a collection of satellites

Headline satellite counts provide an easy way to compare constellations, but they reveal only part of the picture.

An operational network depends on manufacturing capacity, launch availability, orbital commissioning, ground infrastructure, software, terminals, replenishment and the ability to remove or replace spacecraft at the end of their lives.

The reported difficulties affecting some Rassvet satellites demonstrate the gap between deployment and service. A satellite can separate successfully from its launch vehicle and establish contact with controllers without ever becoming a useful part of the constellation.

SpaceX’s advantage is similarly larger than the number of Starlink satellites in orbit. The company has built an industrial system capable of manufacturing satellites, launching them frequently, operating them at scale and replacing them when required. Its planned transition from Falcon 9 to Starship is an attempt to expand that system further.

At the other end of the lifecycle, the Pentagon’s deorbit programme suggests that removing failed or obsolete satellites could become a commercial service of its own.

The meaningful measure of a constellation is therefore not simply the number of satellites launched. It is how reliably the operator can place them into service, sustain the network and manage what happens when spacecraft fail.

Orbital data-storage company Lonestar has awarded Polish startup Ares Shield a contract potentially worth up to $6 million to develop protection for its satellites.

Ares Shield says its proposed module will combine sensors, automated analysis and a high-power microwave emitter. The company claims it could identify an approaching spacecraft and, if necessary, disrupt its electronics without producing debris.

The system has not been demonstrated in orbit, and its claimed capabilities have not been independently validated. Any operational deployment would also face difficult questions about identifying another spacecraft’s intent, authorising a response and avoiding unintended escalation.

A first StarVault payload is currently planned for launch on LizzieSat-4 as part of the Transporter-18 mission. Evidence of an actual in-orbit demonstration would make this considerably more significant.

Source: Space.com

The Satellite Industry Association has published a new paper examining the effects of large constellations on optical and radio astronomy.

The paper discusses satellite brightness, unintended radio emissions, orbital debris and coordination between operators and astronomers. It argues that voluntary mitigation should be supported by consistent and enforceable standards.

It is an industry position paper rather than independent research, but it provides a useful account of how commercial satellite operators are framing the problem and the measures they believe are practical.

Read: A Discussion of Dark and Quiet Skies for the Satellite Industry

The Sky Is Full

I’ve been working on an eight-part documentary podcast about how satellite constellations are reshaping communications, geopolitics and conflict.

The Sky Is Full travels from Ukraine’s battlefields and Chinese launch sites to Cold War bunkers and Silicon Valley boardrooms, tracing how low Earth orbit became some of the world’s most consequential infrastructure.

The trailer is out now.

Listen to The Sky Is Full + The Sky Is Full site

Swarm: The Rise of Megaconstellations and the Battle for Low Earth Orbit

My forthcoming book examines the larger story behind many of the developments covered by Swarmwatch Signals: how commercial satellite networks became strategic infrastructure, why governments increasingly depend on them, and what their expansion means for competition and conflict in orbit.

Swarm will be published by Potomac Books in January 2027.

Read more about Swarm

Did You Know? Of SpaceX’s first 100 Falcon 9 launches in 2026, 77 carried Starlink satellites.

That figure shows how thoroughly constellation deployment now shapes the company’s launch cadence. Starlink is not simply one customer among many. It is the principal source of demand for much of SpaceX’s launch infrastructure.

Source: Space.com

Till next time,

Jay

Swarmwatch Signals