Swarmwatch Signals: Issue 04

This week, Eutelsat revealed plans for another 229 OneWeb satellites and secured two future Ariane 64 launches. The announcements show that OneWeb is moving beyond initial deployment and preparing to replace, maintain and improve its network.

Elsewhere, US Space Command conducted its first live exercise involving coordinated spacecraft manoeuvres across several orbital regions. A new $1 billion Earth-observation programme promises to process information in orbit, while Aule Space is developing a vehicle that could dock with satellites never designed to receive visitors.

Together, these stories point towards the next phase of orbital infrastructure. Placing satellites into orbit is no longer the only challenge. Operators must also maintain networks, move spacecraft, process growing volumes of data and deal with satellites that fail or reach the end of their lives.

Swarmwatch Signals selects a small number of developments that deserve attention and considers what they could mean for space infrastructure, security and resilience.

For constellation sizes, launch histories and orbital activity, visit Swarmwatch.

Eutelsat plans to procure another 229 satellites for its OneWeb low Earth orbit network.

The spacecraft would be added to 440 already ordered from Airbus Defence and Space, taking the planned replenishment programme to 669 satellites. Eutelsat says the new fleet will maintain OneWeb’s service and increase its capabilities while Europe develops the IRIS² secure-connectivity system.

The latest announcement is supported by an Authorisation to Proceed covering initial industrial work. It should not yet be treated as a completed order for 229 finished satellites.

The first spacecraft from the existing 440-satellite order are expected to begin entering production and deployment ahead of the additional batch.

Why it matters: OneWeb already operates more than 600 satellites. Many will eventually need to be replaced as they reach the end of their operational lives.

The size of the replenishment programme demonstrates that maintaining a constellation can require an industrial effort comparable to building the original network. Replacement satellites also give Eutelsat an opportunity to introduce new technology, improve performance and respond to changing customer requirements.

The figures do not mean that all 669 new satellites will operate alongside the existing fleet. A significant proportion will replace spacecraft rather than increase the constellation's simultaneous size.

Source: Eutelsat

Eutelsat has selected Arianespace to conduct two dedicated OneWeb launches in 2027 and 2028.

The missions will use Ariane 64, the four-booster and most powerful configuration of Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket. They will launch from Europe’s spaceport in French Guiana.

Eutelsat says the missions will support the renewal of the OneWeb constellation and maintain service continuity.

The company has used several launch providers during OneWeb’s development. Securing Ariane 64 gives it an additional European route to orbit for its replacement satellites.

Why it matters: Constellation resilience begins before a satellite reaches orbit. An operator dependent on one rocket, launch site or country may struggle to maintain its network if access to that system is interrupted.

OneWeb experienced that problem after losing access to Russian Soyuz launches in 2022. It subsequently used SpaceX and the Indian LVM3 to complete its first-generation constellation.

The Ariane 64 agreement provides more diversity, although its value will depend on Ariane 6 establishing a reliable and sustainable launch cadence.

Source: Eutelsat

US Space Command has completed Apollo Maneuvers 2026, its first exercise involving live spacecraft operations across low, medium and geosynchronous Earth orbit.

The exercise took place during the first week of September and involved allied countries and commercial participants. Space Command says it tested coordinated orbital manoeuvres, operations in a simulated contested environment and the logistics needed to support spacecraft that move more frequently.

It also examined satellite servicing and how military and commercial capabilities could work together during future operations.

Space Command has not disclosed which satellites participated, how many were involved or how closely they approached other spacecraft.

Some reporting has described the activity as orbital “dogfighting”. That phrase goes beyond the limited operational information released by Space Command and risks presenting a military analogy as a description of what actually occurred.

Why it matters: Most satellites operate in predictable orbits and carry a limited amount of propellant. Military planners increasingly want spacecraft that can change position to avoid threats, inspect other objects or gain an operational advantage.

More manoeuvrable satellites will create demand for refuelling, servicing and responsive propulsion. They may also make behaviour in orbit harder to interpret. A defensive manoeuvre by one operator could appear threatening to another.

Sources: US Space Command and Space.com

Marlan Space and Loft Orbital have announced a $1 billion programme to develop a 50-satellite Earth-observation constellation with onboard computing.

The proposed network would combine optical and radar sensors with the ability to process observations in orbit. Its backers say software from Mistral AI and computing hardware from Nvidia will help the satellites identify relevant events before transmitting alerts to customers.

Potential applications include detecting wildfires, monitoring infrastructure and identifying missile launches. These are proposed uses rather than demonstrated capabilities of an operational constellation.

The satellites are expected to be assembled in Abu Dhabi by Orbitworks, a joint venture created by Loft Orbital and Marlan Space. The programme is expected to run for approximately three years, with the first spacecraft reportedly planned for launch in October.

Why it matters: Earth-observation satellites traditionally collect information and transmit it to the ground for processing. Analysing data aboard the spacecraft could reduce the time between observing an event and alerting the customer.

The project also brings together Emirati investment, French and American satellite expertise, European artificial-intelligence software and US computing hardware. The security and resilience of that international supply chain may prove as important as the satellites themselves.

Sources: Loft Orbital, Le Monde and AFP reporting carried by Boursorama

The first phase of the current constellation boom focused on deployment.

Operators concentrated on manufacturing satellites, securing launches and placing enough spacecraft into orbit to begin providing a service. Starlink, OneWeb and other networks were usually measured by how many satellites they had launched and how quickly those totals were growing.

OneWeb’s latest procurement illustrates the next phase.

Satellites have limited operational lives. Maintaining a constellation therefore requires a continuing flow of replacement spacecraft, even if the operator does not plan to increase the network’s overall size.

Replacement generations may also be different from the satellites they succeed. They can carry improved payloads, additional capacity, greater processing power or hosted equipment for government and commercial customers.

Launch diversity becomes important at this stage. A network providing essential communications cannot wait indefinitely for access to a particular rocket or launch site. OneWeb’s decision to secure Ariane 64 missions alongside its other launch arrangements reflects that requirement.

The number of satellites ordered will not always correspond to growth in the number operating at the same time. Increasingly, new satellites will replace existing ones.

That distinction matters when comparing constellations. Launch totals tell us how much hardware has been sent into orbit. They do not tell us how much remains operational, how effectively the network is maintained or how resilient its supporting supply chain has become.

Aule Space has selected a propulsion system from Dawn Aerospace for a planned orbital docking demonstration.

Aule is developing a small “jetpack” spacecraft intended to approach and attach itself to satellites that were not designed for servicing.

These are described as non-cooperative targets because they do not provide a docking interface or actively assist the approaching spacecraft. A successful system could eventually support satellite inspection, life extension and debris removal.

Dawn Aerospace will supply a customised version of its SatDrive propulsion system. The contract moves the partnership beyond an earlier memorandum of understanding and into the provision of flight hardware.

The announcement does not confirm that Aule’s complete spacecraft is ready, that it has selected a target, or that it has secured a launch date.

Why I’m watching: Most satellites currently in orbit were not designed to be captured. Attaching safely to an unprepared and potentially tumbling spacecraft remains one of the most difficult parts of active debris removal and satellite servicing.

The capability would also be inherently dual use. A vehicle able to capture a failed satellite could potentially interfere with an operational one. Transparency about the target, mission and safeguards will therefore matter alongside the technical demonstration.

Source: Dawn Aerospace

Jack C.’s continuously updated survey tracks Qianfan, GuoWang, Honghu-3, Geely’s Future Mobility Constellation, Tianqi and the Three-Body Computing Constellation. Its value lies in bringing fragmented deployment histories and programme ambitions into one place, although some satellite counts and future plans necessarily rely on informed reporting rather than comprehensive official disclosure.

The Sky Is Full

I’ve been working on an eight-part documentary podcast about how satellite constellations are reshaping communications, geopolitics and conflict.

The Sky Is Full travels from Ukraine’s battlefields and Chinese launch sites to Cold War bunkers and Silicon Valley boardrooms, tracing how low Earth orbit became some of the world’s most consequential infrastructure.

The trailer is out now.

Listen to The Sky Is Full + The Sky Is Full site

Swarm: The Rise of Megaconstellations and the Battle for Low Earth Orbit

My forthcoming book examines the larger story behind many of the developments covered by Swarmwatch Signals: how commercial satellite networks became strategic infrastructure, why governments increasingly depend on them, and what their expansion means for competition and conflict in orbit.

Swarm will be published by Potomac Books in January 2027.

Read more about Swarm

Did You Know? Eutelsat currently operates more than 600 OneWeb satellites, but its planned replacement programme could involve 669 new spacecraft.

That does not mean OneWeb is about to double in size. Many of the new satellites will replace existing spacecraft as they reach the end of their operational lives.

It is a useful distinction when reading about large satellite orders. A growing manufacturing programme does not always mean a larger constellation. Sometimes it is the cost of keeping the existing network operating.

Thanks for reading Swarmwatch Signals.

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Till next time,

Jay

Swarmwatch Signals